Germany stands at a historic turning point, moving away from decades of military containment to seek to consolidate the strongest conventional army in Europe. This transformation, driven by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, responds not only to the Russian aggression in Ukraine but also to a seismic shift in trust toward the United States as security guarantor.
The following analysis examines the pillars of this new German defense strategy:
1. Rebuilding the Human Force and Conscription
After significantly reducing its army after the Cold War, Germany has reversed the trend:
- Military Census: A law has been approved requiring 18-year-olds to complete a fitness questionnaire, the first step toward a possible restoration of mandatory military service if volunteering is not sufficient.
- Troop Objectives: The goal is to reach 260,000 active soldiers and 200,000 reservists by 2035, approaching the levels Germany had in West Germany during the Cold War (approx. 500,000 personnel).
- Economic Incentives: 23-month contracts are offered with attractive salaries (approx. €2,600 gross) and benefits such as free housing and medical insurance to attract young professionals.
2. The Strategic ‘Divorce’ from the United States
A decisive factor has been the erosion of trust in the administration of Donald Trump and his 2025 National Security Strategy.
- Loss of Faith in Traditional NATO: 84% of Germans doubt that the U.S. will continue to guarantee European security.
- European Nuclear Deterrence: Six out of ten Germans no longer trust the U.S. ‘nuclear umbrella’ and prefer to develop an alternative based on the capabilities of France and the United Kingdom.
- Political Independence: Merz’s government seeks ‘independence’ from Washington, after perceiving U.S. interference that favors far-right parties and pro-Russian stances in Europe.
3. The 2029 Factor: Preparing for Russia
German intelligence has set the year 2029 as a critical date when Russia could have the industrial and military capacity to attack NATO territory.
- Increased Spending: Germany plans to spend 3.5% of its GDP on defense by 2030, well above NATO’s minimum target of 2%.
- Historic Budget: By 2026, the defense budget stands at €108 billion, more than double what it was in 2021.
- Popular Support: Despite Germany’s traditional reluctance toward militarism, 65% of the population now supports higher defense spending due to the perceived existential threat posed by Putin.
4. Obstacles and Challenges
Despite political will, the path is not without difficulties:
- Industrial Capacity: Turning money into equipment (tanks, munitions, air defense) takes years due to the slow supply chain of the European defense industry.
- Military Culture: There is a generational gap; while leaders seek a strong army, segments of society still grapple with the historical trauma of the Nazi past and fear a direct confrontation with Russia.
- Russian Propaganda: Moscow has intensified its narratives warning of a ‘total confrontation,’ seeking to exploit skepticism about conscription in German society.
The creation of this force aims not only to protect German borders but also to lead a ‘European NATO’ capable of acting autonomously, ensuring that the continent is not left unprotected in the face of a possible strategic retreat of the United States toward the Indo-Pacific.
