The Fredersdorfer Mühlenfließ originates between the hills of the Barnim Nature Park northwest of Berlin, and its catchment area is 230 square kilometers. The small river flows into the Spree, specifically into the Müggelsee. Actually. Last spring, however, the stream had dried up.
For Martin Pusch this was a dramatic alarm signal. “One of the best indicators for the water balance is the flow of running waters,” said the researcher at the Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries. Water in creeks and rivers is “the surplus that flows out of the landscape.” In this spring, however, there was little surplus; Germany suffered a major drought. In mid-April, the Rhine level at the Lorelei fell below 80 centimeters, and the water level of Lake Constance in Konstanz was 15 centimeters below the long-term average.
After evaluating data from his more than 2,000 weather stations, the German Weather Service (DWD) describes this spring drought as “historic,” at least in the east. That 2025 will not enter the history books again as a “drought year” like 2018, 2019 and 2021 is due to July and September, which the weather service classifies as “generally too wet”: The meteorological year ends with an expected average of 655 liters of precipitation per square meter, a minus of 17 percent compared with the reference period 1961 to 1990.
Regionally the rain was very unevenly distributed: Brandenburg managed only 490 liters, Mecklenburg 500. Climate models had predicted that the northeast of Germany would become drier as part of the climate change; in Berlin, even only 480 liters were recorded—everywhere well below the target by double digits.
Heat waves like in July increasingly normal
Dry spring, rainy summer – that is how the weather of 2025 can be summarized. Compared with the reference period, the year was 1.9 degrees warmer. Thus, the past 12 months rank among the ten warmest years since record-keeping began in 1881. However, the temperature was well below what meteorologists had measured in 2024: Germany had already been 2.7 degrees too warm that year.
Notably, the heat wave at the beginning of July saw temperatures of over 39 degrees in some places: the third-strongest heat event the DWD has recorded in this country to date. Until 2014, the 35-degree mark had never been exceeded. In an attribution study, the DWD examined the influence of climate change. The result: Such temperatures have become normal in the German summer, and due to climate change they have a return period of about 4 years.
Unlike 2024, Germany was spared from major severe weather events; for example, there were no widespread floods as in the previous year – when in mid-May heavy rains devastated the Saarland and parts of Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg.
Insurers: small property damage “a matter of luck”
Therefore, in 2025 there are also “only” insured property damages amounting to 2.6 billion euros, as determined by the Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft. That is roughly 3 billion euros less than 2024: a total of 1.4 billion euros were caused by storms, hail and lightning; floods and heavy rain accounted for 500 million, while damages from storms and floods in motor vehicle insurance amounted to 700 million euros.
“That there were fewer damages this year is a matter of luck,” explains Jörg Asmussen, chief executive of the Insurance Association. Because of climate change, extreme weather events are expected to increase in Germany as well, thus the danger that there will be more property damage. “In light of the increasing risks, it is urgently necessary to expand holistic hazard prevention,” urged Asmussen to policymakers.
To this end, the association had presented a model called Elementar Re, with which all damages should in the future be insurable and affordable — for example the roughly 400,000 residential buildings that lie here in high-risk areas. In the event of damage, this would be insured under Elementar Re with two private-sector stages: a dedicated reinsurance and a gradually built-up safeguarding fund.
In the coalition agreement, the Union and the SPD have agreed to introduce a state reinsurance for elemental damages. According to the association, currently only 57 percent of all residential buildings in Germany are insured against elemental damages. Association head Asmussen: “Climate damages have quintupled in Germany since 1980.”
