Global geopolitics is witnessing a phenomenon that future historians will point to as a turning point. For decades, the transatlantic alliance was the unwavering pillar of the world order. However, under the current tenure of Donald Trump, cracks have turned into chasms. The renowned economist Paul Krugman has given words to a sentiment that runs through chancelleries from Berlin to Tokyo: traditional US allies no longer consider Washington their most reliable partner. That position, ironically, is beginning to be occupied by China.
The premise of Krugman is simple yet devastating: international trade requires stability, not spectacle. Donald Trump’s policy, based on announcing surprise tariffs via social media and the constant renegotiation of already-signed treaties, has injected a level of uncertainty that modern economies cannot digest. As a result, countries that five years ago would have closed ranks with the US in any dispute against Beijing, now maintain a stance of equidistance or, even, strategic rapprochement toward the Asian power.
China: The pragmatic partner facing the volatile leader
Beijing has known how to read this moment with mastery. While the Trump administration withdraws from climate agreements and tensions military alliances such as NATO, the Chinese government presents itself in international forums as the defender of multilateralism. It is a paradox that Paul Krugman notes with irony: an authoritarian regime has become the main defender of the trading order that the United States itself created after World War II.
For European and Asian companies, China’s 2026 version offers something that current Washington cannot guarantee: continuity. Although the Chinese model poses ethical and security challenges, its rules of the game — no matter how harsh — are known and stable ten years down the line. In contrast, US policy is now perceived as a wild pendulum that changes direction every four years, or even every week, depending on the mood of the Oval Office.
Europe seeks its own path
The European Union has accelerated its agenda of “strategic autonomy.” This does not mean Europe has become pro-China, but that it has understood that it cannot rely on an American umbrella that comes with changing conditions and attached trade threats.
This Europe-China rapprochement is not a alliance of values, but of economic survival. In a world where the US imposes tariffs on steel or European cars under the pretext of “national security,” Europe is forced to seek counterweights. China, delighted to play the role of a reasonable alternative, is opening sectors of its market to Europeans who were previously shielded, seeking to fracture the Western bloc’s unity definitively.
The cost of isolation
Krugman concludes that the greatest damage Trump is inflicting on his country is not the trade deficit, but the destruction of “trust capital.” Once an ally feels betrayed or used, the relationship never returns to its former state. The United States risks winning small trade battles through intimidation, while losing the war for global leadership to its Chinese counterpart.
The world of 2026 is a more fragmented place where leadership is no longer a birthright for the United States. The “America First” strategy is turning into an “America Alone.” While allies get used to negotiating with Beijing —a partner that, at least, honors its contracts—, Washington remains on the periphery of major global decisions, trapped in a rhetoric of confrontation that its own friends are no longer willing to fund.
