The news has shaken the foundations of an already fractured Libya: Saif al-Islam Gaddafi has died after being shot by an armed squad. The man who was the regime’s heir apparent and the hope of those nostalgic for Colonel Gaddafi was killed in his hideout, thus closing one of the most complex chapters of North African politics.
Libya returns to bloodshed with an event that seems drawn from a spy thriller. Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second son of the late dictator Muammar Gaddafi, has been assassinated in Zintan during the early hours of last Tuesday. A four-man masked commando managed to bypass security at his residence, disable surveillance cameras and end his life after a brief but intense firefight.
Although his figure had operated in the shadows for years, his death has been confirmed by both his political team and the Libyan General Prosecutor’s Office. The man who promised rivers of blood in 2011 has ended up meeting his own death in a corner of the country’s northwest, leaving behind a political vacuum that threatens to ignite once again the factions that vie for control of oil and power.
The end of the heir who sought to rule after the chaos
Saif al-Islam was not an ordinary son; he was the intellectual and political heir who studied at the London School of Economics. His assassination in Zintan marks the disappearance of the last symbol capable of uniting the tribes loyal to the old regime. At 53, the man who attempted to run in the 2021 presidential elections has been silenced by bullets before he could return to the ballot boxes.
The precision of the attack suggests a meticulously planned intelligence operation to remove a troublesome actor. Sources close to his circle insist that the attackers knew the blind spots of the estate, pointing to possible internal betrayal or involvement by foreign special forces. Be it as it may, the “reformer” who ended up being sought by The Hague is no longer a piece on the board.
Conflicting versions and a border on alert
As is often the case in Libya, the official truth competes with parallel narratives that feed social confusion. While his lawyer confirms the assault in Zintan, Saif’s sister has gone on record stating that he died near the border with Algeria while trying to flee the country. This back-and-forth of locations only heightens tensions in a region where militias switch sides as money dictates the wind.
The Prosecutor’s Office has ordered an urgent forensic investigation to identify the perpetrators and calm the zeal of his followers. However, in a country where the law is imposed by weapons, it is unlikely we will see the culprits in a civilian court. Saif al-Islam’s body has now become a political trophy that no one quite knows how to handle without sparking a new revolt.
The definitive fall of the “friendly face” of the dictatorship
Many will remember Saif as that young man with designer glasses who negotiated with Blair and Sarkozy the nuclear disarmament of Libya. His death definitively buries the possibility of a Gaddafi restoration that many Libyans, tired of the current anarchy, were beginning to look upon with more favorable eyes. That refined European image collapsed when, in 2011, he called rebels “rats” and vowed to fight to the last bullet.
That last bullet seems to have arrived finally in the garden of his own house, far from the luxury of Tripoli. Ironically, the man who negotiated the Lockerbie compensation ended his days in a manner so similar to his father. Libya’s history is a loop of violence from which escape seems impossible, and the execution of Saif al-Islam is only the latest twist in a spiral that keeps descending.
The impact on elections and the future of oil
With Saif off the map, the power balance between the Tripoli government and the eastern forces led by Haftar suffers a total upheaval. His candidacy was the great obstacle to unification of the country, as he enjoyed popular support that terrified both Islamists and the eastern generals. Now, without the “Gaddafi factor,” analysts fear that militias will race to seize control of the oil terminals.
The international community watches cautiously, knowing that the death of a martyr can be more dangerous than that of a living politician. The question now is whether those loyal to the Popular Front will take up arms to avenge their leader or dissolve into Libya’s complex mosaic of tribes. The only certainty is that the surname that ruled Libya for four decades has received its final coup de grâce.
A guarded funeral to prevent a new civil war
Saif al-Islam’s burial is anticipated to be a high-risk event that could trigger fresh clashes. Zintan authorities have tightened security, aware that the transfer of the mortal remains could become a show of force by his followers. The country holds its breath while it is decided where the man who could have been everything will rest, and ended up a hunted shadow.
Brigade 444, one of the region’s most powerful, has already rushed to deny any involvement in the assassination. This rapid disassociation shows that no one wants to shoulder the public responsibility of having killed the son of Gaddafi, for fear of retaliation from southern tribes. Libya wakes up today more bereaved of references and more enveloped in uncertainty than yesterday, if that was even possible.
