Setback for Hamburg’s Climate Goals: Hope for the Habeck Clause

Not even the Hamburg SPD wanted last week to defend what their fellow party members in Berlin had negotiated: the abolition of the so-called heating law, which is now to be replaced by a “Building Modernization Act” by CDU and SPD. This raises many questions—and, as the head of the SPD parliamentary group Dirk Kienscherf noted, weakens climate targets indirectly.

So it is hardly surprising that Fridays for Future is calling for a demonstration in Hamburg’s city center on Tuesday afternoon, because climate targets would be driven into a wall.

In Hamburg, at the same time, the search begins for how the self-imposed climate targets can still be achieved. After all, the majority of Hamburg’s eligible voters only in October last year, in a binding referendum, the Hamburg Future Decision, voted in favor of enacting a stricter state climate protection law.

However: while Hamburg is supposed to be climate-neutral by 2040, the planned reversal of the federal regulations on climate-neutral heating of houses and apartments would make this target nearly impossible for 2045. Only one hope seems to remain for sticking to the climate decision for the moment: that the so-called “land-opening clause” remains in the new law, which former Green Economy Minister Robert Habeck had anchored in the legislation.

Abolition of the 65 Percent Rule

From July 1, Hamburg, like the other states, would have commenced the phased introduction of the 65 percent rule for heating replacement: homeowners would have had to prove that their new heating system runs at least 65 percent on renewable energy. This is now off the table — anyone who wants can again install a new gas or oil boiler, with the sole and controversial condition that from 2029 it will be operated with an increasing share of CO2-neutral fuels.

“The weakening of the 65-percent requirement for renewable energies is a gift to the gas lobby at the expense of planning security — and ultimately to all of us,” says Lou Töllner from the Hamburg Zukunftsentscheid. “This would soften central guardrails for the heat transition.” The people of Hamburg had, by a majority, spoken out for a climate-neutral Hamburg by 2040 — which the red-green coalition remains obliged to act on decisively — “especially in the building sector, which is responsible for a large portion of the city’s emissions,” says Töllner.

How that could work is shown by the Greens: If the still-drafting Building Modernization Act allows the states to have independent, deviating regulations, Hamburg could stick to the goal of also making housing climate-neutral on time. “In that case, we can imagine that the share of 65 percent renewable energy will in the future be regulated within the framework of the Hamburg Climate Protection Act and thus be preserved,” says Rosa Domm, climate policy spokesperson for the Hamburg Greens faction.

The heating law introduced by the 2023 traffic-light government provided such an opportunity for the states if they pursue more ambitious climate protection: The states can by state law impose “further requirements for the generation and use of electricity or heat and cooling from renewable energies in a spatial context with buildings, as well as further requirements or restrictions on direct electric heating,” says Paragraph 9a.

Climate Neutrality in Housing at Risk Through 2040

The environmental and climate department, led by Green Katharina Fegebank, also hopes that the federal government will grant the states the “freedom to continue the path” in climate protection, says a spokesman.

However, it remains completely unclear whether this passage will also appear in the new law. The Hamburg SPD parliamentary group is therefore more cautious when asked and wants to wait until a first draft of the new law is available. So far only a few rough outlines are known; by Easter a first draft of the law is expected to be ready, which will then be introduced to the Bundestag.

That Hamburg landlords would now again switch to the installation of gas or oil heating, at least for his members, is not believed: “The goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains the commitment of VNW companies.”

From the vehement opposition expressed even before the referendum to the target that Hamburg should be climate-neutral by 2040 rather than the nationwide 2045, the VNW, however, remains outspoken: since safety and trust in political decisions are indispensable for the massive investments of the companies in the energy transition, Hamburg should rather rejoin the nationwide target of climate neutrality by 2045.