The situation in Mexico has suffered a systemic convulsion this week after the killing of Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho”. Up to his fall, Oseguera led the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG), considered the most dangerous criminal organization globally. This structure, originally born as a split from the Sinaloa Cartel, controls together with its former ally 70% of the world’s cocaine consumption, maintaining a vast network of illicit businesses in the United States and Europe.
The national security landscape took a drastic turn after the military operation carried out on February 22, 2026 in Tapalpa, Jalisco. Confirmation of the capo’s death has plunged the country into an unprecedented day of violence that evokes scenes of open war. The CJNG’s response was immediate: a coordinated offensive in 20 states of the Republic which, according to BBC reports and official sources, leaves a preliminary toll of 73 fatalities and more than 70 arrests. Among the deceased are 25 National Guard officers and 30 presumed criminals, after intense clashes that paralysed roads and urban centers. These figures rise to 700 in the case of CJNG gunmen.
Specialized sources on drug trafficking indicate that the operation had the blessing of the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, and under the direct supervision of the American president, Donald Trump. According to MONCLOA.COM, Trump would have pressured intensely for the execution of this strike, given Sheinbaum’s known reluctance to use lethal force against groups operating with impunity on the Pacific coast.
Analysts indicate that the White House would have deployed a range of coercive measures against the Mexican president: from the threat of tariffs and economic sanctions, to tightening migration policies against Mexican citizens. However, the decisive factor would have been the alleged pressure by Trump on a matter of extreme sensitivity: the disclosure of supposed financial aid of 8 million dollars provided by the Sinaloa Cartel to fund Sheinbaum’s electoral campaign.
The analysis of the sources consulted suggests that presidential approval would also respond to a pragmatic relationship with one faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, specifically the faction linked to the sons of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. The federal government would maintain agreements with this group to favor it in its internal war against “Los Chapitos”, the sons of Joaquín Guzmán Loera.
This alleged alliance between the political echelon and the Zambada faction would be based on the willingness of the latter to maintain the “old-school rules”. This stance would have allowed them to win the trust of certain ruling sectors, on the premise of trying to maintain a relative order and control over the levels of violence that characterize contemporary mafias’ groups.
Besieged State and Fragile Ceasefire
In the epicenter of the conflict, Jalisco remains under a contained, tense atmosphere. Although state authorities announced the lifting of the “Código Rojo” on February 24 to attempt to resume schooling and administrative activities, the street reality belies normality. On various roadways, the burnt-out skeletons of vehicles used in more than 250 narco-blockades recorded remain visible, while the Security Cabinet admits that at least seven strategic points in the state remain obstructed.
The military deployment is massive, especially in municipalities such as Zapopan, Tlaquepaque and the Tapalpa cabin area, where the Secretariat of National Defense maintains strict control of access. This surveillance extends even to hospitals in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area to guard the wounded from the initial operation. Diversas fuentes consultadas por este periódico han señalado que han podido morir cerca de 700 hombres del CJNG y más de 100 entre agentes de seguridad y civiles.
Crossroads in the Succession
The disappearance of the central figure of the CJNG raises a question about the future of the criminal structure. Intelligence analysts and agencies such as InSight Crime warn that, due to the personalized leadership exercised by Oseguera, the organization faces an imminent risk of atomization. It is not ruled out that the cartel fractures into independent cells, unleashing an internal struggle for the control of the plazas.
Among the potential successors, names with different profiles stand out. Juan Carlos Valencia González, “El 03”, Oseguera’s stepson and head of the elite group, is considered by many as the natural heir due to blood ties. However, his leadership is threatened by figures of greater operational weight such as Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán, “El Sapo”, who controls the logistics in Puerto Vallarta, or Audias Flores Silva, “El Jardinero”, with a strong presence in Nayarit and Zacatecas. Likewise, the name of Julio Alberto Castillo Rodríguez, “El Chorro”, son-in-law of “El Mencho,” resonates as an option capable of maintaining the financial and family cohesion of the group.
Diplomatically, the killing of the most-wanted man by U.S. agencies marks a milestone in the bilateral security relationship between Mexico and the United States. While the Federal Government reevaluates the National Guard strategy to contain retaliations, the Attorney General’s Office has concluded the forensic tests that verify the capo’s identity. Under extreme security protocols, the remains of Oseguera Cervantes will be handed over to his family, thereby closing a chapter in the history of drug trafficking and opening a new one, marked by uncertainty and fear among the civilian population.
