Admiral General Teodoro Esteban López Calderón, Chief of the Defence Staff (Jemad), offered a comprehensive view of the current and future state of Spain’s defense and its international positioning, during a breakfast organized by the Foro Nueva Defensa in Madrid. His reflections highlighted the complexity of the geopolitical landscape and the urgency of adapting the country’s defensive capabilities to a global environment in constant evolution.
Admiral General López Calderón stressed that the new geopolitical environment will be intrinsically linked to the outcome of the Ukraine War and to the dynamics of relations between the United States, Russia, the European Union and China. In this sense, he emphasized that recent measures by the United States are redefining the patterns of international relations, with a pronounced economic focus. The current American administration, according to the Jemad, will direct its main efforts toward the Indo-Pacific axis, delegating persuasion and the management of influence over Russia to the European Union and its allies.
To this complexity is added the uncertainty generated by the effects of Israel and United States attacks against Iran, which positions the Middle East as a crucial factor that will continue to directly influence European policies in the region.
The Ukraine War, for its part, is not only shaping the policies of the EU countries, but is also imposing a significant burden on their economies. The prospect of a Ukraine willing to cede territory and resources, joined by a worn-down Russia that could accept Ukraine’s entry into the EU, represents a move with the potential to notably affect the stability of the eurozone and, by extension, the EU as a whole.
TWO GREAT BLOCS
The Jemad envisions a global scenario characterized by the emergence of two great blocs. On one side, a European Union aligned with the United States, and on the other, a Russia under the clear influence and power of China. This panorama is intensified by a resurgence of identity-based ideas at the global level and an Atlantic bloc that turns its gaze toward India and Asia. In this context, the Admiral General López Calderón warned of a possible weakening of the power and influence of fundamental organizations such as the EU and NATO, a situation that, in his words, must be avoided “at all costs.”
The Admiral General also highlighted that we are in a period of transition in the way war is waged and conflicts are addressed. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is gaining vital importance, transforming battlefields and demanding a substantial improvement in precision and long-range fire capability. The emergence of new actors, both state and non-state, together with the change in the nature of the confrontations, makes it crucial to know how to act in degraded scenarios, where information is limited and communications can be compromised.
Conflicts are becoming increasingly dynamic, immersed in a “gray zone” of permanent confrontations, both direct and indirect. The technological revolution is continually altering defense strategies, and the deterrence capability takes on paramount importance. To this end, the Jemad emphasized that the Spanish Armed Forces must have adequate stocks of weapons, ammunition and high-intensity combat capabilities.
Moreover, the new army concept will require more highly trained and competitive personnel, with salaries in line with the demands and capabilities that will be required of both soldiers and civilian staff working in the defense sector. Investment in human capital is, therefore, as crucial as investment in equipment.
NO SAFE REAR
One of the most relevant points of the Admiral General’s intervention was the idea of a “no-secure-rear” war. The proliferation of long-range weapons eliminates any space of security anywhere in the world or in society. Consequently, the development of a culture of comprehensive defense that encompasses all kinds of scenarios and generates a collective awareness of the nonexistence of completely secure spaces becomes indispensable.
In this context, the capacity for resilience in the face of attacks and high-intensity fighting becomes a vital factor to withstand complex situations. For this reason, the Admiral General López Calderón called for breaking the “taboo” of working in the defense industry, a goal that, in his own words, is being achieved progressively. This break must occur at all levels of society, in order to improve collective capabilities to be more useful and effective in the national defense effort.
In summary, the Jemad’s words reflect Spain’s urgency to adapt to a volatile geopolitical landscape, where technological innovation and the preparation of its Armed Forces are essential to ensuring security and stability in a world without rear areas.
