Climate change is intensifying wildfire danger in southern Latin America. As a result of climate change, the probability of the weather conditions that favored the current wildfires in Argentina and Chile has increased by about 2.5 to 3 times. This is the conclusion of a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research group published on Wednesday, which examined the recent wildfires in Chile and Argentina.
Since mid-January, severe fires have raged in the Chilean regions Biobío and Ñuble, killing at least 23 people. More than 1,000 houses have been destroyed and 52,000 people had to be evacuated and brought to safety. The fires were aided by high temperatures and strong winds. Red alert remains in force for several fires.
Over 1,500 kilometers south of Buenos Aires, the forests are also burning. In the province of Chubut the fires had already broken out in mid-December. In the meantime, the provinces of Río Negro, Neuquén and La Pampa have also been affected. They are the heaviest fires of the last decade, and according to reports from the local fire service more than 55,000 hectares have been destroyed.
The flames have also spread to the Argentine Los Alerces National Park. “In Patagonia, the flames threaten the Alerce trees – ancient giants that have stood undisturbed for millennia,” says Juan Rivera from the Argentine Institute of Snow Research, Glaciology and Environmental Sciences in Mendoza. Extreme drought, persistent winds and high temperatures are contributing to the fires, which have been spreading for more than a month.
Up to 25 Percent Less Rainfall Due to Climate Change
The weather is not happening by chance. “Our analysis shows a clear and dangerous influence of climate change on these fires,” explains Clair Barnes from the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. According to the researchers, in the affected regions 20 to 25 percent less rainfall fell than would have occurred without the increasing burning of fossil fuels. The decline in rainfall in the early summer leads not only to drier vegetation in Chile and Argentina, which serves as fuel for fires, but also to water shortages for the people living there, Barnes adds.
In addition to the weather conditions, which the climate crisis also affects, other factors play a role in the spread of the fires: including the ongoing spread of non-native tree species such as pines, which form highly flammable forests and are now reaching alarmingly close to residential areas.
The austerity policies of the libertarian President Javier Milei are also cited by the researchers as part of the problem. In 2025, a quarter of the budget allocated for fire prevention and firefighting simply was not spent. The Argentine environmental organization Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales warns of a further drastic cut in funding for prevention and the weakening of early warning systems.
World Weather Attribution published the study themselves, as is typical for the group, rather than in a scientific journal. They do this in order to quickly inform the public about current extreme weather. This means the study did not undergo independent peer review. The methods used were published through the traditional route and have undergone such scrutiny.
Although some rainfall has now somewhat eased the situation in Chubut, several fires are still active or are repeatedly rekindled by dry and strong winds. “For Chile and Argentina, the drying of the landscapes is a crisis that requires urgent action to protect our unique biodiversity and the people of our region,” says Rivera.
